The numbers a teacher should know

This number sets the mood for a whole cohort, and it is often quoted out of context. Students pick up a headline ratio of applicants to places from somewhere and treat it as their personal odds. The ratio counts every application, including candidates who do not meet the academic requirements, so the competition facing a well-prepared applicant with a sensible list of four looks very different.

The more useful picture is how many applicants there were, how many places existed and where those places are. Places on these courses are capped nationally, so a strong year does not produce more admissions. That is also why a dropped grade hurts more here than in other degrees.

We find it works best as a reason to start early and think carefully about the fifth choice. Used as a warning to a cohort, it mostly makes students anxious. A student who knows the ratio includes unprepared applicants, and that the aim is to be prepared with a well-spread list, has something to act on.

Offer rates get misread all the time, because almost every quoted rate uses a different denominator. A university's offer rate counts offers against applications to that university. A national rate counts offers against applicants. A tutoring provider's rate counts a selected group of its own students. Comparing them directly tells a student very little.

Four questions help with any offer-rate claim. Who is in the denominator, and were they selected? How many people is it, and is the sample big enough to mean anything? What counts as success: an offer anywhere, or an offer at that university? What period does it cover? If a rate cannot answer those, be wary of it, whoever is quoting it.

We publish our own offer rate for students who reached interview after a set amount of one-to-one tutoring, with the cohort definition, denominator and reporting period stated. It describes a selected group of tutored students and is not a national rate. It is linked here as an example of a rate that shows its method, which is what students should expect of any number they are shown.

These are the numbers most often quoted out of date. A student told in September that they need a score they do not, or that their score is fine when it is not, can make four choices on a false premise. Two things make it tricky. First, the test changed. Since the 2025 cycle the UCAT is scored out of 2700 across three cognitive subtests, so any cut-off above 2700 belongs to the old test scored out of 3600 and cannot be compared with a current score. Second, most cut-offs are not published in advance. Universities usually set them after seeing the cohort, so last year's figure tells you what happened last year, nothing more.

Deciles are more useful. A decile shows where a score sits against everyone who sat the test that year, so the ninth decile means the same thing every year even as raw scores drift. When a student asks whether their score is good, give them the decile.

The third number is how each university weights the score. A score below the threshold at one university may count for only forty per cent of a combined shortlisting score at another, with GCSE grades making up the rest. Knowing which model each school uses matters as much as the score, and it is how a disappointing result still becomes a workable list of four.

This one is about scheduling, and a school can act on it directly. Interview invitations go out across the winter, often at short notice, and they land in the middle of mock exams, open days and coursework deadlines. A student invited with ten days' warning while sitting mocks is stretched in a way that has nothing to do with their ability.

If you know the usual windows by university, you can keep big school commitments away from your applicants' busiest weeks. You can also tell a student in November roughly when to expect to hear, which saves weeks of checking their inbox and gives them longer to prepare.

Treat published windows as a guide. Universities move dates, add rounds and interview in waves, so plan around the shape of the winter, not a specific date.

For international applicants the fee often decides the application, and families are rarely prepared for it. Medicine and dentistry are among the most expensive undergraduate courses in the UK, the clinical years usually cost more than the early years, and the fee runs for five or six years. A family looking at the headline annual fee is often seeing less than half the real cost.

International places on these courses are also capped separately, and there are not many. That makes the international application much more competitive than the home one at the same university, before cost comes into it. Both points are easier to raise in Year 12 than in Year 13.

Home students need a version of the same conversation. These are long courses, with placement travel and accommodation costs in the later years, and there are bursaries and scholarships many families never hear about. A student who can see how the whole degree will be paid for applies with more confidence than one privately worried about year five.